Chile will remain one of the most attractive power markets in Latin America over the next 10 years due to its strong electricity consumption growth , driven by the country's expanding manufacturing sector and energy intensive mining industry. A stable business environment and liberalised electricity sector will continue to support investment in new power capacity, strengthening our upbeat forecast for growth in electricity generation . While investment in large-scale hydropower projects will be hampered by regulatory uncertainties , renewables and natural gas-fired power generation will experience considerable growth and create significant investment opportunities over our 10-year forecast period.
After a slowdown in 2014, the Chilean economy will expand 2.6% in 2015, driven by strengthening manufacturing sector and private consumption growth. Weakness in the Chilean peso and lower oil prices will boost these dynamics, ensuring sustained economic growth over the next decade. Our Country Risk team forecasts real GDP will grow by an average of 4.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) between 2016 and 2024. The resiliency of Chile's energy-intensive mining sector to a lower copper's price, coupled with an expanding population, will contribute to strong growth in power demand over the coming decade.
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We forecast electricity consumption to grow by an annual average rate of 4.50% between 2015 and 2024, reaching a total of 105.70 terawatts hour (TWh) by the end of our 10-year forecast period. Meanwhile, we forecast total power generation to increase by an annual average rate of 4.50% over the next decade, totalling 109.14TWh in 2024. Although this increase will be the result of an uptick in installed capacity across all power sources, we hold a particularly upbeat outlook for renewables and natural gas-fired technologies.
Key Trends And Developments
* Our positive outlook for investment into Chile's power sector is supported by the results of the...
The Chile Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Chile Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
Key Benefits
* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Chile to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
* Target business opportunities and risks Chile's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Chile.
* Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
* Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
* Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
* Trade: Total imports and exports.
* Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
* Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Market Overview
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Competitive Landscape
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Regional Overview
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
Sources
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).
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