Quarterly growth on the Bosnian mobile market remained flat in Q214, despite a relatively low penetration rate, owing to sluggish economic growth and discounting of inactive SIM cards. However, a considerable proportion of the population still do not have regular access to mobile services, a situation we attribute to poor network coverage in underserved areas and the inability of low income earners in these areas to afford the service. With the uptake of 3G and multiplay services in urban areas, the operators are less inclined to embark on expensive and less rewarding network deployment projects in rural areas. We expect this to weigh on mobile subscriptions growth over our forecast period, through to 2018, with the penetration rate remaining below 100%.
Key Data
* The mobile market was flat at 0.4%quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q214, as penetration declined to 88.1%.
* The latest regulatory data show that the total number of active fixed telephone lines of dominant operators was almost flat quarter on quarter with 0.01% growth at 869,309.We estimate that the broadband market grew by 11.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2013, driven by rising demand for mobile data and cable broadband connections.
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Key Trends & Developments
Consolidation continued in the fixed-line sector with BlicNet receiving regulatory approval to acquire Telrad Net and United Group, the Dutch holding firm controlled by US-based Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR), entering in talks to buy Bosnian cable television and broadband internet service provider M&H Company. These developments are in line with our view that consolidation will invigorate Bosnia's fixed-line sector by giving the alternative operators sufficient scale to challenge the dominance of the three incumbent operators.
In a recent regulatory filing, cable TV operator Telemach has revealed plans to acquire five small local cable TV operators. Two of these - Lukavac-based BHB Cable TV and Sarajevo-based HKB Net - had...
The Bosnia-Herzegovina Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Bosnia-Herzegovina's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Bosnia-Herzegovina Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Bosnia-Herzegovina to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bosnian telecoms market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in Bosnia-Herzegovina's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
* Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fi xed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G ), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
* Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
* Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
* Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:
* Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
* Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
* Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Regulatory Environment
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