The growth picture across Panama's freight mix is set to follow a broadly similar pattern to the previous 12 months. Slowing growth will temper Panama's fiscal consolidation efforts in the coming years, ensuring the country fails to meet its fiscal deficit targets. This will prompt a modest deterioration in the country's debt metrics and see investor sentiment toward the country cool, which should not bode particularly well for Panama's freight industry. That said, the Panama Canal development is relatively well insulated from outside risk in that it is such a huge undertaking, as well as a necessary one.
Panama also faces an increasingly challenging medium-term fiscal outlook. Strong real GDP growth has long helped to paper over the cracks in Panama's macroeconomic credentials. Indeed, even despite the government regularly raising the deficit ceiling to accommodate higher spending, robust economic expansion has thus far ensured against a deterioration in the country's debt metrics and buoyed investor sentiment. However, as growth cools, not only will this ensure the government fails to meet its deficit reduction targets in the years ahead, but will also ensure that the persistent shortfalls weigh increasingly on market sentiment.
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The freight mix in Panama is obviously dominated by the canal, and specifically, the expansion of the canal which continues to secure all the headlines at present. We have once more pencilled in steady y-o-y tonnage growth at the country's two main ports Balboa and Manzanillo (3.60% and 4.80% respectively) in 2015. Meanwhile, air freight will see annual gains of 4.00% this year.
Headline Industry Developments
* 2015 air freight tonnage is set to grow by 4.00%, to 134,900 tonnes.
* 2015 tonnage throughput at Balboa is expected to grow by 3.60% to reach 26.47mn tonnes.
* 2015 tonnage throughput at Manzanillo is forecast to grow by 4.80% to reach 16.11mn tonnes.
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The Panama Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Panama Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Panamanian freight transport and logistics industry.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Panama to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Panamanian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Panama.
* Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Industry Trends And Developments
Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)
Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)
Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs
Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Market Overview
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Political Outlook
The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Company Profiles
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
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