We have revised our 2014 and 2015 auto sales growth forecast for the Philippines to 29.4% and 13.3%, up from 21.7% and 9.4% respectively and we believe that the country will continue to see sales for both the passenger car and commercial vehicle (CV) segments surge over the coming quarters. According to the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines, Inc. (CAMPI), auto sales surged by 32.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in October to 22,278 units, bringing sales for the first 10 months of 2014 to 192,005 units, representing growth of 29.6% y-o-y.
We believe the passenger car segment will continue to outperform, and for the period January-October, passenger sales grew by 50.3% y-o-y to 74,397 units. Growth for the coming quarters will largely be underpinned by strong private consumption, despite an expected slowdown in GDP growth, as well as a resilient currency unit, which will continue to support auto imports. Given that domestic manufacturing is still relatively undeveloped, we expect demand for cars to be largely fulfilled by imports. As such, we forecast passenger car sales to grow by 49.5% for 2014, and factoring in the high-base effect of 2014, expect 2015 sales growth to come in at 20.0% for 2015.
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On the commercial vehicle (CV) front, we expect growth to remain robust, although the pace of growth should also slow down, and we forecast CV sales to grow by 18.3% and 9.0% in 2014 and 2015 respectively. For the first ten months of 2014, CV sales grew by 19.2% y-o-y to 117,608 units. With the growth for the country's construction and infrastructure sectors expected to moderate over the coming quarters, we believe a slowdown in infrastructural activity to result in softening CV sales. Meanwhile, we maintain our outlook for vehicle production, forecasting production growth to come in at 13.5% and 14.5% in 2014 and 2015, with demand for autos largely being fulfilled by imports.
While we remain bullish on the growth potential of the country's auto sector, we...
The Philippines Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Philippines Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Philippines.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Philippine automotives market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
* Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Company Profiles
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
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