The Democratic Republic of the Congo's vast mineral resources will continue to attract international interest, given the country's untapped and high-grade reserves. Growth over the next five years will be driven largely by expansions in the copper sector and the Kibali gold mine ramping up to full production. However, while we expect substantial growth in mining output, risks to investment remain numerous, with security concerns and the lack of adequate infrastructure most pressing.
Plenty To Play For, But Downside Risks Lurk
After half a century of decline and unrealised potential, the DRC's mining sector is on the verge of solid growth, as several huge gold deposits are developed. The joint venture between Randgold Resources and AngloGold Ashanti in the form of the Kibali gold mine will drive growth in DRCs mining sector over our forecast period to 2018.
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As well as gold, there are several significant copper projects due to come online. In addition to their size, the copper deposits in the DRC are attractive due to their high copper grade. The Kipoi and Kamoto mines are estimated to contain grades above 3.0%, significantly higher than the world average of 0.6%. This will be an increasingly important issue as some of the world's largest mines, including Antamina in Peru, Escondida in Chile and Grasberg in Indonesia, have experienced falling ore grades and thus higher extraction costs.
While the potential is clear, political impediments are likely to remain, as conflict continues in the east of the country and in Katanga Province where much of the mining occurs. The potential for political ructions will continue to pose downside risk to mining sector growth.
The Congo, Dem. Rep. Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Congo, Dem. Rep. Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Congo, Dem. Rep..
Key Benefits
* Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Congo, Dem. Rep. to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in Congo, Dem. Rep.'s mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Congo, Dem. Rep..
* Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Mining Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry rankings products.
Key Projects
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:
* Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
* Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
* Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
* Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.
BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).
Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis
Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.
Company Profiles
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
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