The Bulgarian petrochemicals industry is recovering but remains vulnerable to supply-side shocks in the form of gas feedstock restrictions and high oil prices as well as sluggish external demand, according to BMI's latest Bulgaria Petrochemicals report.
Bulgarian petrochemicals output enjoyed a surge in 2014 as the country's economy began its recovery in earnest. The index for rubber and plastic output surged by an average of 15.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the January-August period of 2014, while chemicals output grew 3.1% y-o-y. This compares with overall manufacturing growth of 3.5%.
In 2014, Bulgaria's petrochemicals capacities remained unchanged with olefins capacities of 300,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) ethylene, 80,000tpa propylene and 50,000tpa butadiene. This feeds relatively small polymer plants that are insufficient to cover domestic needs. Amid a surge of cheap gas-based production in the US and the Middle East, Bulgaria is struggling with declining petrochemicals profitability.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/924103_bulgaria_petrochemicals_report_2015.aspx?afid=101
BMI notes the following trends:
* In spite of growth, limited indigenous oil sources, a relatively small refinery and reliance on gas imports from Russia mean that the petrochemicals sector still faces competitiveness issues and vulnerability to exogenous shocks.
* Fertiliser production has grown in recent years with sales led by exports, a trend that will continue provided Russia sustains gas supplies via Ukraine.
* In terms of domestic consumption, Bulgaria is set to see a thriving market for rubber and plastics for the automotive industry, which has recently seen the opening of a relatively modest Chinese car plant and the prospect of further additions. However, much of the growth has already been achieved and the plant is now operating at full capacity.
* Bulgaria's Petrochemicals Risk/Rewards Index score declined 2.0 points over the past year to 39.7 points, putting it in joint 15th place with Azerbaijan in the European rankings - 5.1 points behind Romania and 0.9 points ahead...
The Bulgaria Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
BMI's Bulgaria Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bulgarian petrochemicals industry.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Bulgarian petrochemicals market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Bulgarian petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.
* Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Market Overview
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.
Industry Trends & Developments
Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).
Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).
Company Profiles
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
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