Freight Growth To Continue In 2015
Our freight transport forecast for 2015 shows cargo volume growth will continue at a similar pace to 2014. . Both GDP and foreign trade expansion will support the freight sector. In the medium to longer term we continue to think that the key to sustainable growth is investment in port infrastructure, including road and rail links in the hinterland areas. We are encouraged to see that the new government wants to push forward on this front Capacity problems remain an issue, but new investment projects in ports, airports, road, and rail are being launched.
BMI is trimming back its forecast for Indonesian GDP growth in 2015 by half a percentage point to 5.5%, down from 6.0% previously. We are maintaining our estimate for 2014 growth at 5.1%. The main reasons for being more cautious about the outlook in 2015 are the combined effects of tighter monetary policy, the adjustment caused by the reduction of petrol price subsidies, and a mixed export outlook, influenced by the slowdown in the Chinese economy. Bank Indonesia (BI) has maintained a relatively tight monetary policy bias over recent quarters despite a falling rate of headline inflation. However, the decision by the new administration of President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo to slash petrol price subsidies in November is expected to give a short-term boost to inflation and therefore persuade BI to maintain higher interest rates. Other growth-negative factors are also at work, such as the slowdown in the Chinese economy. Investment has eased back. Despite this, BMI remains optimistic about the medium-term outlook for the country, and in the period running up to 2019 we expect GDP growth to average a healthy 6.3%.
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Industry Data
* Airfreight volumes are forecast to expand by 7.0% in 2015, with average annual growth of 7.1% during our forecast period to 2019.
* Rail freight volumes are estimated to rise by 7.5% in 2015, with average growth of 7.7% during our forecast period.
* 2015...
The Indonesia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Indonesia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indonesian freight transport and logistics industry.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Indonesia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Indonesian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Indonesia.
* Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Industry Trends And Developments
Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)
Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)
Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs
Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Market Overview
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Political Outlook
The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Company Profiles
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
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