Ukraine is faced with civil war and economic meltdown and the souring of relations with Russia has cut off a major source of trade. For the country's petrochemicals industry, this is fatal in that it severely limits feedstock imports as well as finished product exports, according to BMI's latest Ukraine Petrochemicals Report.
In the first nine months of 2014, Ukraine saw declines in both rubber production down 13.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) and plastic production down 10.2% y-o-y. Ukrainian chemicals output declined by 12.5% y-o-y to UAH34.3bn. This followed a 10.6% decline in 2014. Conflict has damaged infrastructure and factories in the eastern oblasts, undermining power supply and petrochemicals production. The petrochemicals industry may not recover over the forecast period as the legacy of conflict weighs down the country's industrial base and the destruction of essential infrastructure.
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Several large-scale plants remain shut in response to the political crisis, including the fertiliser plants run by Stirol and located in the turbulent east of the country and the polyvinyl chloride (PVC) complex operated by Karpatneftekhim in the more stable west.
* The Ukrainian petrochemicals industry was already facing a tough outlook with the domestic economy in recession, compounded by a weak export base and currency instability before the political crisis led to the break-away of Russian-majority regions. Russia has also threatened to decrease its supplies of natural gas to Ukraine after claiming the country owed billions in unpaid bills.
* BMI maintains a bearish view on the country's manufacturing activity and business environment more generally, and believe this will weigh on output growth. The economy is likely to remain in recession in 2015 and will not begin recovery until 2016. Falling household purchasing power, soaring inflation and extremely tight credit conditions are likely to drag down the economy with the petrochemicals sector the most exposed.
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The Ukraine Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
BMI's Ukraine Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ukrainian petrochemicals industry.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Ukrainian petrochemicals market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Ukrainian petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
* Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Market Overview
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.
Industry Trends & Developments
Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).
Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).
Company Profiles
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
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