Core Views
* The debt relief plan, passed through parliament in late May 2014, will provide a short-term boost to consumption, at the expense of deteriorating external surpluses and reduced ability to meet external debt obligations.
* The government's persistent inaction is undermining Iceland's short-term political stability, reflected in the downgrade to our proprietary political risk ratings this quarter.
* We see no clear proposal for removal of restrictive capital controls, which will continue to hamper foreign investment into Iceland, capping long-term growth potential.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/887960_iceland_business_forecast_report_q4_2014.aspx?afid=101
Major Forecast Changes
* We have revised up our 2015 real GDP growth forecast this quarter, to 3.0% from 2.5% previously, as we believe the government's debt relief programme will provide further support to what was an already buoyant consumer story. However, we believe this stronger consumption story will undermine much of the recent improvement in the current account balance, while prolonging restrictive capital controls.
Key Risks To Outlook
* The biggest risk to our forecast is policy trajectory, particularly in terms of how the current government chooses to deal with the country's failed banks. Any abrupt lowering of the controls would almost certainly lead to a rapid outflow of capital from the country, triggering a sell-off in the krona and a potential balance of payments crisis. We do not believe that this will happen over the next two years or so, but the potential fall-out is so large that the risk must be acknowledged.
The Iceland Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Iceland and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Iceland's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2018, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).
Key Uses
* Forecast the pace and stability of Iceland's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Iceland's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Rankings system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Iceland, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Iceland Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Business Environment and Key Sector Outlook.
Economic Outlook:
How will the Iceland economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2014-2018?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Iceland through end-2018 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Iceland Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2014 through to end-2018, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2018 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.
Key Benefits
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Iceland and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Iceland, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in Iceland over the next 5-years?
BMI's Iceland country Risk Rankings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
* SWOT Analysis for the Iceland Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Iceland.
* Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Rankings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ankings, rankings and trends for Iceland's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
* Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
Key Benefits
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For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
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