Croatia's retail sector holds promise for potential investors. The country's unemployment rate is to fall dramatically over BMI's forecast period (2014-2018), from 20% to 14%, with the percentage of households in the middle-income wage bracket of US D 10,000+ to exceed 50%. However, the outlook for economic growth remains bleak, despite the country's accession to the EU in 2013, as reflected in our forecast for real GDP to contract by 0.7% in 2014. Following a year of contraction across the board, all headline retail sectors will return to positive growth territory from 2015 onwards.
Over the long term, Croatia has significant market growth potential. Luxury items are expected to become increasingly popular from a relatively low base, as consumers become more cash rich and time-poor due to longer working hours and the stresses of modern life. Customers will not necessarily spend more but we anticipate volume sales increasing as retailers strive to meet consumers' demands for high quality at low prices. Large, foreign retail names are becoming more and more frequent players in the country, bringing with them recognisable brands, a greater choice to the customer and all at low prices. The ever more vibrant tourism industry also provides a significant boost to retail as foreign visitors can account for up to 50% of all shoppers in many outlets, especially in the summer months. In general, investment levels in retail will rise as improvements are made to the domestic business environment as a result of EU convergence and in fact, the Croatian retail market provides plenty of growth opportunities for domestic and foreign players.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/854024_croatia_retail_report_q3_2014.aspx?afid=101
Growth could be hindered, however, by the country's small, ageing and declining population, which we forecast to decrease in size by 0.4% per annum over the forecast period. Household size is set to decrease from 2.8 to 2.7, with the labour force to also decrease, by 0.8% per annum. This will curtail the potential size of the...
The Croatia Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.
BMI's Croatia Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Croatia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Croatian retail market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in Croatia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:
Headline Retail Forecast: Total Household Spending, (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household); Spending by Retail Sector for: food and non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing and footwear, housing and utilities, furnishings and home, health, transport, recreation, education, transport, restaurants and hotels, personal care and insurance (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tableware, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (US$bn, % Growth);
Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000,% growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – US$5000+, US$10,000+ US$50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).
Industry Risk Reward Rankings
BMI’s Retail Industry Risk Reward Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Rankings index aimed at investors in the regional retail market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
Market Overview
Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care.
The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.
Competitive Landscape
This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is a leading distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff is always available to help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
read full article