BMI maintains a broadly optimistic stance towards the Saudi Arabian tourism sector at the mid-point of 2014. We forecast 8.6% growth in tourist arrivals from all regions in 2014, with tourism receipts set to rise by around 9.1% in US dollar terms.
That said, one near-term threat to inbound tourism flows is the ongoing outbreak of the coronavirus Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), which has now reportedly led to 282 deaths from 688 confirmed cases in the kingdom. In May 2014, the UAE's National newspaper cited research from Bank of America Merrill Lynch that stated that Saudi Arabia's estimated USD16bn religious tourism industry could be impacted if the MERS outbreak worsens.
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There are concerns that the large influx of religious tourists into Saudi Arabia in July for Ramadan, and again in October during Hajj, could lead to more infections and the spread of the virus around the world. Although the World Health Organization has not yet designated MERS a global health emergency - which could then potentially lead to restrictions on travel to and from the kingdom, this could change if the virus starts to spread more quickly. BMI will monitor the situation over the coming quarter to see if any changes to our inbound tourism forecasts need to be made.
Aside from this threat, BMI retains a positive long-term outlook on Saudi Arabian tourism, with inbound tourism flows set to be boosted further should the kingdom decide to relax its strict visa entry requirements. In this context, in May 2014, Gulf Business reported on comments from the president of the Saudi Commission for Tourism and Antiquities (SCTA), Prince Sultan bin Salman bin Abdul Aziz, who said that the country would consider revising its strict visa policies in the next three years, once improvements have been made to improve domestic airport and security system infrastructure. These statements follow the reported suspension of a limited tourist visa programme in March 2014 in order to improve domestic...
The Saudi Arabia Tourism Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for tourist expenditure; government expenditure on tourism; passenger arrivals and departures by mode of transport, reason for travel, origin and destination; and the accommodation market.
BMI's Saudi Arabia Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Saudi tourism industry.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent tourism industry forecasts for Saudi Arabia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Saudi tourism market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Saudi tourism sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Saudi Arabia.
* Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
Coverage
BMI Industry View
This contains a synopsis of our forecasts, and any changes, together with an overview of key trends and developments in the tourism industry, and an assessment of the impact of various economic and national factors which might affect the sector. It also covers new transport projects, new hotel developments, and acquisitions.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the tourism sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2018 for all key indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
Inbound tourism: Arrivals (‘000), arrivals growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by region, growth (% y-o-y), arrivals by country, growth (% y-o-y), top 10 countries based on arrivals, growth (% y-o-y).
Outbound tourism: Departures (‘000), growth (% y-o-y), departures by regional destination (‘000 and growth % y-o-y).
Travel: Methods of travel for arrivals (Air, Ship, Rail), (‘000) and (% growth y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for transport (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), international Tourism receipts for travel items (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y).
Hotels: Hotel industry value (US$bn), (growth % y-o-y), (%GDP), (per capita), (per employee), number of hotels and like establishments (‘000), (growth % y-o-y), total overnight stays, (‘000), (growth % y-o-y), length of stay, occupancy rate (%), number of hotel rooms, (‘000), (growth % y-o-y).
Industry Risk Reward Rankings
BMI’s Tourism Industry Risk Reward Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (tour operators, tourism infrastructure investors, financial institutions) in the regional tourism market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
We also have Security Risk Reward Rankings which provide a detailed assessment of possible threats to the country (and by extenuation to the tourism industry), ranging from economic and political upheaval, to terrorist attacks and organised crime levels.
Market Overview
This contains a comprehensive overview of the tourism industry in the country, its overall value, the value of its hotels industry, trends in the hotels industry and any new developments. It also contains an evaluation of the top 10 global hotel groups’ presence in the country, which brands are present in which cities, the number of hotels and any planned developments and strategies. The Market Overview also considers the tourism infrastructure developments in the country, in particular transport infrastructure projects such as ports and airports. Tables are also included from our regularly updated Key Projects Database, which contain details of projects, their value, the time frame, their current status, the companies involved and their estimated completion dates.
Company Profiles
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